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Numbers Game: A Statistical Look At Price's Season
In his first season as a starter, Price broke a number of school records.
 
In his first season as a starter, Price broke a number of school records.

June 13, 2012

SEATTLE -

With the 2011-12 school year at an end and the summer months approaching, the fall sports seasons loom. In Seattle, that means the next Husky football game is moving ever closer and last season moves farther and farther away in the rear-view mirror.

Now is as good a time as any to examine, from a statistical standpoint, the remarkable 2011 season turned in by Husky quarterback Keith Price, a sophomore last fall. Quite simply, Price may have had the best season in school history in terms of the numbers he posted. He completed 242 of his 362 pass attempts for 3,063 yards, 33 touchdowns and only 11 interceptions.

Former Husky gun-slinger Cody Pickett threw for more yards in 2002 than Price did last year, and Pickett completed a lot more passes that year, but Price did set new records in several major categories and placed his name among a group of nationally-recognized college QBs in his first season as a starter.

When it comes to single-season records, the most well-documented marks broken by Price were single-season touchdowns (33), single-season completion percentage (.669) and single-season passing efficiency (161.9). He also set a season record for TD passes per game (2.54).

Even with two years yet to play, Price also set (if only temporarily) several UW career records. While these numbers will change, he has the requisite number of attempts or games to officially hold the following UW career records entering the 2012 season: lowest interception percentage (2.76; 11 int. in 399 attempts); highest passing efficiency (156.8); and touchdown passes per game (1.667; 35 in 21 games).

As for single-game accomplishments, Price put his name on a number of top-10 lists. His 438 passing yards vs. Baylor in the Alamo Bowl were second-most in Husky history, trailing only the 455 Pickett threw for vs. Arizona in 2001, the week after separating his throwing shoulder. Price also threw for four touchdowns in a game on four separate occasions, with each of those outings rankied tied for third in UW single-game history (two players, Chris Rowland and Jake Locker, have thrown for five TDs in a game). Only Brock Huard, with five between 1996 and 1998, had more four-TD games in his careerthan Price had in the 2011 season.

In terms the total offense (rushing yards plus passing yards), Price's 477 yards in the Alamo Bowl were third-most in Husky history, as were his 3,073 yards of total offense for the season.

The 2011 college football season was one dominated by great quarterbacks across the nation. The competition for the Heisman Trophy came down, mainly, to Baylor's Robert Griffin III and Stanford's Andrew Luck, with Griffin winning in a relatively close vote. But four other QBs finished in the top 10 in the voting: USC's Matt Barkley, Houston's Case Keenum, Boise State's Kellen Moore and Wisconsin's Russell Wilson, all of whom received first-place votes.

It was among these quarterbacks that Price found himself in some of the most prominent NCAA statistical rankings, most notably passing efficiency.

The NCAA formula for pass efficiency, which differs from the NFL formula for passer rating, is: [ { (8.4 x yards) + (330 x touchdowns) - (200 x interceptions) + (100 x completions) } / attempts ]. As complex as that seems, the NFL's formula is even more so. You can read up on it on wikipedia. Using the NFL formula, Price's rating would have been 110.77, which would have trailed only Aaron Rodgers in 2011 (obviously, a college-to-pro comparison isn't really valid, but it's still interesting).

Here's a look at the NCAA's top 10 quarterbacks in terms of passing efficiency for 2011:

2011 NCAA PASS EFFICIENCY LEADERS
Rank Name, School, Yr. Pass Eff.
1. Russell Wilson, Wisconsin, Sr. 191.78
2. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Jr. 189.48
3. Kellen Moore, Boise St., Sr. 175.19
4. Case Keenum, Houston, Sr. 174.03
5. Andrew Luck, Stanford, Sr. 169.69
6. Terrance Owens, Toledo, Jr. 169.24
7. Keith Price, Washington, So. 161.93
8. Matt Barkley, USC, Jr. 161.22
9. Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Sr. 159.78
10. Bryn Renner, North Carolina, So. 159.44

Of the 10 players listed above, only Price and Renner were first-year starting quarterbacks in 2011. Owens, for what it's worth, started four games as a freshman at Toledo in 2010 and started just three games last fall, though he played enough to compile the necessary minimums to be ranked by the NCAA.

From the start of last season, Price found himself consistently ranked among the nation's leaders in touchdown passes. He finished tied for eighth, again alongside all of the big names.

2011 NCAA TOUCHDOWN PASS LEADERS
Rank Name, School, Yr. TDs
1. Case Keenum, Houston, Sr. 48
2. Kellen Moore, Boise St., Sr. 43
3. Matt Barkley, USC, Jr. 39
4. Robert Griffin III, Baylor, Jr. 37
Andrew Luck, Stanford, Sr. 37
Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma State, Sr. 37
7. Aaron Murray, Georgia, So. 35
8. Tahj Boyd, Clemson, So. 33
Keith Price, Washington, So. 33
Russell Wilson, Wisconsin, Sr. 33

It's worth noting that four of the above players (Keenum, Murray, Boyd and Wilson) racked up those totals over a 14-game season, thanks to having played in conference title games, while the rest played in 13 games (other than Barkley, who played 12).

Price wrapped up his 2011 season with a game for the ages in the Valero Alamo Bowl vs. Baylor. In that game, the Husky QB completed 23 of his 37 passes for 438 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. He also avoided being sacked. On the ground, he carried the ball only five times, but gained 39 yards and scored three rushing touchdowns.

The official NCAA name for the total of rushing and passing touchdowns is "touchdowns responsible for," a stat usually attributed to a quarterback. In college bowl game history, only four players had ever been responsible for six touchdowns: Bobby Layne (Texas vs. Missouri, 1946 Cotton Bowl), Chuck Long (Iowa vs. Texas, 1984 Freedom Bowl), Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan vs. Purdue, 2007 Motor City Bowl) and Paul Smith (Tulsa vs. Bowling Green, 2008 GMAC Bowl). Price went one better, as his four passing TDs and three rushing TDs beat them all by one to set a new record. Bobby Layne, incidentally, is in both the Pro Football and College Football Halls of Fame.

Price also set an NCAA bowl-game record with 42 points responsible for, breaking Lane's 66-year old record of 40 (in additional to his six TDs, Lane also kicked four PATs in the 1946 Cotton Bowl).

As noted previously, his 438 passing yards that night were second-most in UW history and his 477 yards of total offense were good for third. He also used that game to spring board himself to the UW single-season record for points responsible for, with 216. Remarkably, the three touchdowns he rushed for that night in San Antonio were his only three rushing TDs of the season.

With two more years of college eligibility still remaining, Price will have ample opportunity to try and match or better his various records while also certainly making more of a stamp on the career charts than he already has. The 2012 season starts Sept. 1, when the Huskies meet San Diego State at CenturyLink Field.

Go Huskies!